Ethereum and Solana ETF Derivatives: Between June 21, 2024, and June 28, 2024, the value of Bitcoin fell by approximately 3.7%, dipping below $58,500 at its lowest point. Despite this decline, only three trading sessions ended in the red, indicating that bears did not dominate the entire week.
According to tradingview.com, the primary factor affecting Bitcoin’s market cap was the announcement that the now-defunct MtGox crypto exchange would initiate compensation payments in July, totaling close to $9 billion. The MtGox news significantly impacted the market, causing a 4.6% drop in Bitcoin’s price on June 24. However, experts remain uncertain about the long-term effects on the market.
Alex Torn, head of Galaxy Research, believes the concerns about the payouts from the failed exchange are overblown. In contrast, JP Morgan, an American investment firm, predicts a major setback for the crypto market.
On Wednesday, June 26, the week-long withdrawal of funds from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was halted, with an inflow reaching approximately $31 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC fund continued to lose money. The shift in ETF investor sentiment provided a glimmer of optimism for Bitcoin enthusiasts, but the price still fell by 1.6% on June 26.
A fascinating situation is unfolding on the Binance exchange, which handles over half of all Bitcoin trades. Over 72% of accounts have long positions, while short sellers hold less than 28% of the market. However, the short-to-long position ratio on Binance is nearly 49.92% to 50.08%, suggesting that while retail investors in small-cap companies hold most bullish accounts, major players, or “whales,” are not particularly optimistic.
Technically, the bears have the upper hand. A drop below the blue 50-day moving average indicates bearish sentiment, and Bitcoin’s volatility has been decreasing for over three months, as shown by the falling ATR indicator. Support levels are at $56,500, with resistance at $65,513. The fear and greed index has also dropped to 47, a decrease of sixteen points from a week ago, indicating a neutral sentiment.
Ethereum
Ethereum saw a 2% drop in value this week, nearing $3,200 but failing to stay above $3,500. There were more falling sessions than rising ones: four versus three.
Ethereum enthusiasts eagerly await the ultimate US approval of spot ETFs, which Reuters reports may happen as soon as July 4th. Paradigm Capital, a major player in the cryptocurrency industry, sent 19,504 ETH (worth over $65.5 million) to Anchorage Digital, a platform that stores digital assets, in preparation. This was the largest of several transfers from Paradigm Capital to Anchorage Digital in recent months, reflecting optimism about the ETF approval.
Ether has maintained its status as an inflationary coin for more than 70 days, evidenced by the ongoing increase in supply, the longest duration since the implementation of Proof-of-Stake (PoS). The introduction of blobs, which decrease burning fees, has contributed to ether inflation.
Technical analysis indicates short-term bearish sentiment among Ethereum investors, with the price below the blue 50-day moving average. However, the long-term outlook remains bullish, as indicated by the price staying above the orange 200-day moving average. Support is at $3,232.2, with resistance at $3,650.
Solana
Solana’s value surged by 8.6% over the past week. A single trading session on Thursday, June 27, accounted for most of this increase, with the cryptocurrency gaining 9.1% in one day. Typically, Solana experiences a downward trend in the first half of the week, followed by an upward trend in the second half.
The ETF topic has seen recent developments, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) receiving the first filing for a Solana ETF from VanEck, a New York investment firm. VanEck’s Bitcoin spot ETF (HODL) is already approved, and a similar product for ether has been greenlit by the SEC. Solana’s price surge on June 27 was driven by this first ETF application.
Additionally, the Solana Foundation unveiled two new resources, Actions and Blinks, to enhance the feasibility of widespread cryptocurrency adoption. Actions facilitate online transactions and exchanges with a URL, while Blinks allow users to share links that support Actions.
Despite Solana’s rise during the week, the overall technical outlook remains negative. The price is still below the blue 50-day moving average, and the RSI indicator is below 50. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet formed a bottom below the $110–$125 support zone, tested twice in late April 2024. The closest resistance level is $151.65.
