Trump vs. Harris 2024: Polls Show Tight Race and Shifting Dynamics

Waseem Ayub July 28, 2024Last Updated: July 28, 2024

0 11 2 hours read

Join Our WhatsApp Channel for Update: Join Now

Table of Contents

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are suddenly in a neck-and-neck contest about 100 days before the election.

Current Polls and Trends:

Wall Street Journal Poll: Harris trails Trump by 2 percentage points, 47% to 49%. With a margin of error of 3.1%, the race remains highly competitive.
HarrisX/Forbes Survey: Among over 3,000 registered voters, Harris is behind Trump 45% to 47%. When including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to just one point (43% to 42%), with Kennedy at 9% and 6% undecided.

Favorability Ratings:

Harris and Trump: Both have a 44% favorable rating.
Other Candidates: Biden has a 39% favorable rating, Kennedy 36%, and Trump’s running mate JD Vance 34%.

Recent Poll Insights:

19th News/SurveyMonkey Poll: Shows Trump leading Harris by one point and finds that 87% of Americans support Biden’s decision to end his campaign. More respondents believe Biden’s exit will benefit the Democratic Party (45%) compared to the Republican Party (29%).
Harris’s Gender and Race: 31% of respondents think being a woman will help Harris, 33% think it will hurt, and 34% see no impact. Her being Black and Indian American is seen as beneficial by 32%, while 24% think it’s harmful, and 41% expect no impact.

Performance in New Polls:

New York Times/Siena Poll: Trump leads Harris by one point (48% to 47%) among likely voters and by two points (48% to 46%) among registered voters. The poll shows Harris making a dent in Trump’s lead over Biden, who previously trailed Trump by six points.
Six-Way Matchup: Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters when including third-party candidates.

Democratic Enthusiasm:

Times/Siena Survey: Democrats are more enthusiastic about Harris than Biden, with nearly 80% of Democratic-leaning voters supporting her as the nominee, compared to 48% for Biden three weeks ago.

Recent Poll Variations:

Morning Consult: Harris leads Trump 46% to 45% in their weekly poll conducted July 22-24.
Reuters/Ipsos: Harris is ahead of Trump 44% to 42% in a poll conducted Monday and Tuesday.
CNN/SSRS: Trump leads Harris 49% to 46% in a July 22-23 survey.
Other Polls: Trump leads Harris by varying margins in four additional polls, with figures ranging from 1 to 3 percentage points.

Impact of Biden’s Exit:

Harris’s Performance: Polls consistently show Harris outperforming Biden against Trump. For instance, Harris and Trump were tied in an Ipsos and Reuters poll taken July 15-16, whereas Biden trailed Trump by one point in a July 1-2 poll.
Contrast with Biden: Harris performs better than Biden in polls conducted since Biden’s departure from the race, with Biden trailing Trump by six points in previous surveys.

Voter Sentiment:

Mental Sharpness: 56% of voters see Harris as “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump and 22% for Biden.
Attention to Race: 64% of respondents are now paying a lot of attention to the race, up from 48% before the June 27 debate.

Swing States:

Emerson College Survey: Trump leads Harris by five or fewer points in four of five battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. They are tied in Wisconsin.

Polling Trends:

Forbes/HarrisX: Showed Trump leading both Biden and Harris by six points before Biden’s exit, with a two-point increase in his lead over Harris.
Yahoo/YouGov: Found Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head matchup and Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race.
CBS News/YouGov: Showed Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five.

Big Picture:

Real Clear Politics Average: Trump leads Harris by 1.9 points. The average does not include the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Trump led Biden by 3.1 points as of Sunday when Biden dropped out, marking a 1.6-point increase since the June 27 debate.

Looking Ahead:

Trump Campaign Insight: Pollster Tony Fabrizio predicts a “Harris Honeymoon” period with a short-term boost for Harris as Democrats rally around her.

Background:

Biden’s Withdrawal: Biden ended his campaign after the June 27 debate, endorsing Harris, who has since secured substantial support from the party. The Democratic nomination is expected to be formally awarded to Harris in early August.