Bitcoin Price Touches Bull Market Trendline, Historically Triggering 30% Gains
Bitcoin has nearly reached the short-term holder realized price, marking a pivotal moment that could signal potential upside for BTC. This comes amidst a battle for a critical bull market trendline, which Bitcoin lost for the first time in almost a year back in June. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current price action is testing this important level.
Bitcoin’s price surge puts short-term holders in profit
Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) activity remains pivotal in bull markets, influencing long-term price stability based on this cohort’s aggregate cost basis.
Since the onset of the current bull market in early 2023, BTC/USD has only briefly fallen below the STH realized price. Now, another downturn appears to be concluding. STH entities, defined as holders of BTC for 155 days or less, are no longer experiencing losses.
“Recently, Bitcoin’s price has surpassed the STH Realized Price,” noted J. A. Maartunn, a contributor at CryptoQuant, in a Quicktake blog post on July 18.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Realized Price has seen significant movements since 2023, with the cryptocurrency reclaiming this level twice, resulting in substantial profits exceeding 30% each time, according to insights from CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn.
The specific value of the STH realized price varies among sources, with CryptoQuant’s estimate slightly lower than others in the industry. However, recent data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode indicates a challenging period for the STH cohort, with over 66% of their holdings now in unrealized losses over the past 30 days, as reported in their newsletter, The Week Onchain, released on July 16.
Despite these fluctuations, the $65,000 mark remains a critical target for bullish momentum to solidify support. Notably, Bitcoin has faced strong resistance at this level for the past five months, highlighting its significance in current market dynamics, according to Aksel Kibar, a prominent trader and former fund manager.
Looking at technical indicators, crypto trader JT emphasized the importance of Bitcoin breaking through several Fibonacci retracement levels to potentially reach new all-time highs. However, JT cautioned about declining trading volumes, contrasting sharply with the high volumes seen during Bitcoin’s recent price recovery from lows around $53,000.
“Volume surged during the rally from $53K, but has since dropped significantly, now below average levels,” JT noted, underscoring potential challenges in sustaining upward momentum in the current market environment.
