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Oil Prices Rise as Crude and Gasoline Inventories Decline

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On Thursday, oil prices increased slightly as U.S. refineries boosted their processing of crude oil, leading to a decline in crude stocks, and there was also a decrease in gasoline inventories, indicating stronger demand. Brent futures rose by 35 cents to $85.43 per barrel, a 0.4% increase, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went up by 36 cents to $82.47 per barrel, a rise of 0.5%.

In the United States, crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 445.1 million barrels during the week ending July 5, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel decrease according to a Reuters poll. Gasoline stocks also dropped by 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, which was much larger than the 600,000-barrel decrease analysts had predicted for the Fourth of July holiday week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for robust growth in global oil demand for 2024 and the following year. They noted that strong economic growth and increased air travel during the summer months would support fuel consumption. However, gains in oil prices were limited due to minimal disruptions in supply from refineries and offshore production facilities affected by hurricane Beryl.

Looking ahead, the market will be influenced by upcoming U.S. inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index scheduled for release on Thursday and the Producer Price Index report on Friday. These reports could impact market sentiment and oil prices depending on their outcomes.

Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by September increased to 74%, up from about 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. Lowering interest rates reduces the cost of borrowing money, which can stimulate economic activity and increase demand for oil.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank will adjust interest rates “when and as” necessary, rejecting the idea that cutting rates in September might be viewed as a political move before the upcoming presidential election in the fall.

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