2024 might become the hottest year on Earth because June has already set new heat records
Last month, the European Union’s climate monitoring service said June was the hottest on record. This continues a trend of extremely high temperatures that some scientists believe could make 2024 the hottest year ever recorded.
According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), every month since June 2023 has been the hottest for that month since record-keeping began. This consistent heat is driven by both human-caused climate change and the natural weather phenomenon known as El Nino.
Scientists, like Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth, estimate there is a strong likelihood (about 95%) that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year since temperatures started being recorded in the mid-1800s.
The effects of this changing climate have been severe in 2024. More than 1,000 people died due to extreme heat during the haj pilgrimage last month. Heat-related deaths were also reported in places like New Delhi, which experienced an unusually long heatwave, and among tourists in Greece.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, believes there is a high probability that 2024 will be ranked as the hottest year on record due to these ongoing temperature trends.
In summary, 2024 is on track to be exceptionally hot, with each month breaking temperature records, potentially making it the hottest year ever documented due to climate change and natural weather patterns.
“El Nino happens naturally and comes and goes on its own,” she said. “We can’t stop El Nino, but we can stop burning oil, gas, and coal.”
El Nino is a natural event where the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean get warmer. This tends to make the average global temperature rise.
Recently, the influence of El Nino has decreased, and now the world is in neutral conditions. Later this year, cooler La Nina conditions are expected to develop.
The main reason for climate change is the greenhouse gases released when we burn fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal. Despite promises to reduce global warming, countries have not been successful in cutting down these emissions. This has caused temperatures to keep going up steadily for many years.
According to C3S, in the twelve months leading up to June, the average global temperature was the highest ever recorded for such a period. It was 1.64 degrees Celsius higher than the average during the period from 1850 to 1900, before widespread industrial activity began.
In summary, while El Nino is a natural phenomenon that affects temperatures, human activities—especially the burning of fossil fuels—are the main drivers of climate change. Despite global efforts to reduce emissions, temperatures continue to rise, as shown by recent records.
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